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British Pound Outlook – Analysis & Setups on GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY

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GBP/USD extended losses on Wednesday, but narrowly avoided breaking below cluster support at 1.2560, where the 200-day simple moving average converges with a short-term rising trendline. To prevent further deterioration in cable’s near-term outlook, bulls need to fiercely defend this area; failure to do so could result in a pullback towards 1.2500 and possibly even 1.2455.

In case of a bullish turnaround, the first technical ceiling to consider lies near the psychological 1.2600 mark, followed by 1.2675 (the 50-day simple moving average). Additional gains beyond this point might shift focus to trendline resistance at 1.2735. Continuing upwards, the spotlight will fall squarely on 1.2830.


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GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView

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of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -14% 38% -4%
Weekly -16% 31% -7%


EUR/GBP has been in a sustained downtrend since late December 2023, making impeccable lower highs and lower lows throughout the move, which has resulted in a ~2.5% plunge from peak to trough. This week, the pair fell to its weakest point in nearly six months before mounting a modest comeback after bouncing off a key technical floor around 0.8500.

To see an improvement in the euro’s position relative to the British pound in terms of market sentiment, it is crucial for the exchange rate to stay above 0.8500. If this condition is not met and prices slip below this region, a rapid descent toward channel support at 0.8465 may ensue. From here onwards, additional losses could direct attention to 0.8400.

On the flip side, if EUR/GBP continues to build on its rebound from Wednesday and extends higher in the coming trading sessions, the first obstacle on the road to recovery looms at 0.8570, followed by 0.8590. Above these resistance levels, the 200-day simple moving average is likely to be the next line of defense against a bullish assault.


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EUR/GBP Char Creating Using TradingView

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GBP/JPY rallied on Tuesday, blasting past its recent high and hitting its best level since August 2015. Prices, however, downshifted the next day, sliding back towards 189.00 when the bulls were unable to take out channel resistance at 190.00. If the reversal accelerates and the pair loses the 189.00 handle in the days ahead, a pullback toward 185.50 could be on the horizon.

On the other hand, if GBP/JPY pivots to the upside in the direction of the broader uptrend from its current position, overhead resistance rests near 190.00, as stated before. Although overcoming this technical ceiling might prove challenging for the bullish camp, a clean and clear breakout could lead buyers to set their sights on the 2015 highs near 196.00.


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GBP/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView

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